Prediction

This is a random collection of thoughts on and lessons learned about human behavior – particularly of the violent and nasty kind. I’ve tried to develop an understanding of both the internal mindset and the outward physical signs of the violent.

• The single most important tool of any prediction: pre-incident indicators. Pre-incident indicators are those detectable factors that occur before the outcome being predicted. Stepping on the first rung of a ladder is a significant pre-incident indicator to reaching the top; stepping on the sixth even more so. Since everything a person does is created twice – once in the mind and once in its execution – ideas and impulses are pre-incident indicators fro action. Every thought is preceded by a perception, every impulse is preceded by a thought, every action is preceded by an impulse, and man is not so private a being that his behavior is unseen, his patterns undetectable.
• In a situation involving a threat from a gun, the perpetrator backing away from the potential victim is not necessarily a retreat. It can be the final pre-incident indicator before the pulling of the trigger. Because guns are not intimate weapons, the desire for some distance from the person the perp is about to shoot is the element that should complete your prediction. Act!
• When a person has discharged much of their hostility and frustration with a violent act then, at least for the moment, they can be not only reasonable but helpful. The time after a major incident offers a period of safety and rest. The adrenaline is no longer flowing and they are tired.
• Only 20% of all homicides are committed by strangers. The other 80% are committed by people we know, we work with, we fire, we date, we marry, those we divorce.
• Many “experts” lose the creativity and imagination of the less informed. They are so intimately familiar with known patterns that they may fail to recognize or respect the importance of the new wrinkle. The process of applying expertise is, after all, the editing out of unimportant details in favor of those known to be relevant.
• The mind of the beginner is empty, free of the habits of the expert, ready to accept, to doubt, and open to all the possibilities. – Zen master Shunryu Suzuki
• In the conversation look at details the person provided then rushed past. Be particularly interested in those that are not required elements of the story, those that might seem unimportant but for the fact that they were mentioned. These extra details are satellites, shot off into space, later to beam back valuable information. Always follow them.
• I am capable of what every other human is capable of. This is one of the great lessons of war and life. – Maya Angelou
• Indicators of a violent predator:

1. childhood abuse

2. Doesn’t feel things in the present. The ability to live in tomorrow or next year to immunize him against the pain and hopelessness of the present.

3. Recklessness and bravado are features of many violent people. Some might call it daring or bravery but “heroism” has two sides.

4. Desensitization to danger, violence or gore. You can spot this feature in people who do not react as you might to shocking things. When everyone else who just witnessed a hostile argument is shaken up, for example, this person is calm.

5. Their perceived need to be in control. Think of someone you know whom you might call a control freak. That person, like most violent people, grew up in a chaotic, violent, or addictive home. At a minimum, it was a home where parents did not act consistently and reliably, a place where love was uncertain or conditional. For him or her, controlling others became the only certain way to predict their behavior.

Signals and Predictive Strategies

· Forced teaming – It can be shown through the use of the word “we”. Forced teaming is an effective way to establish premature trust because a “we’re-in-the-same-boat” attitude is hard to rebuff without feeling rude. Sharing a predicament, like being stuck in a stalled elevator or arriving simultaneously at a just-closed store, will understandably move people around social boundaries. But forced teaming is not about coincidence; it is intentional and directed, and it is one of the most sophisticated manipulations. The detectable signal of forced teaming is the projection of a shared purpose or experience where none exists: “Both of us”; “We’re some team”; “How are we going to handle this?”; “Now we’ve done it,” etc. Forced teaming is done I many contexts for many reasons, but when applied by a stranger in vulnerable situation (such as alone in a remote or unpopulated area), it is always inappropriate. It is not about partnership or coincidence – it is about establishing rapport, and that may or may not be all right, depending on WHY someone seeks rapport.

· Charm and Niceness – Charm is a skill, not an inherent feature of one’s personality. Charm is almost always a directed instrument, which, like rapport building, has motive. To charm is to compel, to control by allure or attraction. Think of charm as a verb, not a trait. If you consciously tell yourself, “This person is trying to charm me,” as opposed to “This person is charming,” you’ll be able to see around it. Most often, when you see what’s behind charm, it won’t be sinister, but other times you’ll be glad you looked. One way to charm is with the smile, which is the most important signal of intent. It is also the typical disguise used to mask the emotions. We must learn and then teach our children that niceness does not equal goodness. Niceness is a decision, a strategy of social interaction; it is not a character trait. People seeking to control others almost always present the image of a nice person in the beginning.

· Too many details – When people are telling the truth, they don’t feel doubted, so they don’t feel the need for additional support in the form of details. When people lie, however, even if what they say sounds credible to you, it doesn’t sound credible to them, so they keep talking. Each detail may be only a small tack he throws on the road, but together they can stop a truck. The defense is to remain consciously aware of the context in which details are offered. The person who recognizes the strategy of Too Many Details sees the forest while simultaneously being able to see the few trees that really matter. When approached by a stranger while walking on some deserted city street at night, no matter how engaging he might be, you must never lose sight of the context: He is a stranger who approached you. The defense for too many details is simple: Bring the context into conscious thought.

· Typecasting – A person labels another in some slightly critical way, hoping they’ll feel compelled to prove that his opinion is not accurate. “You’re probably too snobbish to talk to the likes of me,” a man might say, and the woman will cast off the mantle of “snob” by talking to him. A man tells a woman, “You don’t look like someone who reads the newspaper,” and she sets out to prove that she is intelligent and well-informed. Typecasting always involves a slight insult, and usually one that is easy to refute. But since it is the response itself that the typecaster seeks, the defense is silence, acting as if the words weren’t even spoken. If you engage, you can win the point, but you might lose something greater.

· Loan Sharking – He wants to be allowed to help you because that would place you in his debt, and the fact that you owe a person something makes it hard to ask him to leave you alone. He will gladly lend one amount but cruelly collects much more. He generously offers assistance but is always calculating the debt. The defense is to bring two rarely remembered facts into consciousness: He approached me, and I didn’t ask for any help.

· The Unsolicited Promise – The unsolicited promise is one of the most reliable signals because it is nearly always of questionable motive. Promises are used to convince us of an intention, but they are not guarantees. A guarantee is a promise that offers some compensation if the speaker fails to deliver; he commits to make it all right again if things don’t go as he says they would. But promises offer no such collateral. They are the very hollowest instruments of speech, showing nothing more thatn the speaker’s desire to convince you of something. So it’s useful to ask yourself: Why does this person need to convince me? When someone says “I promise,” you say (at least in your head) “You’re right, I am hesitant about trusting you, and maybe for good reason. Thank you for pointing it out.”

· Discounting the Word “No” – Perhaps the most universally significant signal is a man’s ignoring or discounting the concept of no. Actions are far more eloquent and credible than words, particularly a short and undervalued word like “no,” and particularly when it’s offered tentatively or without conviction. So when you say no but then go on with the person, it isn’t really no anymore. “No” is a word that must never be negotiated, because the person who chooses not to hear it is trying to control you. Declining to hear “no” is a signal that someone is either seeking control or refusing to relinquish it. With strangers, even those with the best intentions, never, ever relent on the issue of “no,” because it sets the stage for more efforts to control. If you let someone talk you out of the word “no,” you might as well wear a sign that reads, “You are in charge.” The worst response when someone fails to accept “no” is to give ever-weakening refusals and then give in. Another common response is to negotiate (“I really appreciate your offer but let me try to do it on my own first”). Negotiations are about possibilities, and providing access to someone who makes you apprehensive is not a possibility you want to keep on the agenda. Remember that “no” is a complete sentence.

· Intuition is always learning, and though it may occasionally send a signal that turns out to be les than urgent, everything it communicates to you is meaningful. Unlike worry, it will not waste your time. Intuition might send any of several messengers to get your attention, and because they differ according to urgency, it is good to know the ranking. The intuitive signal of the highest order, the one with the greatest urgency, is fear; accordingly, it should always be listened to. The next level is apprehension, then suspicion, then hesitation, doubt, gut feelings, hunches, and curiosity. There are also nagging feelings, persistent thoughts, physical sensations, wonder, and anxiety. Generally speaking, these are less urgent. By thinking about these signals with an open mind when they occur, you will learn how to communicate with yourself.

· Another signal that people rarely recognize is humor. Learn to listen to the jokes people make when discussing some possible hazard. Humor, particularly dark humor, is a common way to communicate true concern without the risk of feeling silly afterward, and without overtly showing fear.

· The messengers of intuition: nagging feelings, persistent thoughts, humor, wonder, anxiety, curiosity, hunches, gut feelings, doubt, hesitation, suspicion, apprehension, fear.

· Behavior is bound by some essential rules. Admittedly they may not always apply for context will govern, but there are some broad strokes that can be fairly applied to most of us:

1. We seek connection with others.

2. We are saddened by loss and try to avoid it.

3. We dislike rejection.

4. We like recognition and attention.

5. We will do more to avoid pain than we will do to seek pleasure.

6. We dislike ridicule and embarrassment.

7. We care what others think of us.

8. We seek a degree of control over our lives.

· Psycopathy is evidenced by some of the following features:

1. The ability to act in spite of conscience or empathy.

2. They are glib or superficial.

3. They are egocentric and grandiose.

4. They lack remorse or guilt.

5. They are deceitful and manipulative.

6. They are impulsive.

7. They have an abnormal need for excitement.

8. They lack responsibility.

9. They are emotionally shallow.

Some body language to watch

1. The chin jutted forward is a sign of aggression.

2. The head slightly retracted is a sign of fear.

3. The nostrils flared while taking a sharp breath is a sign of anger.

4. Holding the arms forward with the palms facing down while making small downward movements means “calm down.”

5. Stroking the chin means “I am thinking.”

· J.AC.A.: In each prediction about violence, we must ask what the context, stimuli, and developments might mean to the person involved, not just what they mean to us. We must ask if the actor will perceive violence as moving him toward some desired outcome or away from it. The conscious or unconscious decision to use violence, or to do most anything, involves many mental and emotional processes, but they usually boil down to how a person perceives four fairly simple issues: justification, alternatives, consequences, and ability (or JACA).

1. Perceived Justification – Does the person feel justified in using violence? Was there sufficient provocation in their mind? Are they looking for an excuse to argue? The process of developing and manufacturing justification can be observed. Popular justifications include the moral high ground of righteous indignation and the more simple equation known by its biblical name: an eye for an eye. Anger is a very seductive emotion because it is profoundly energizing and exhilarating. Sometimes people feel their anger is justified by past unfairness, and with the slightest excuse, they bring forth resentments unrelated to the present situation. You could say such a person has prejustified hostility, more commonly known as having a chip on his shoulder. The degree of provocation is, of course, in the eye of the provoked. Perceived intentionality (e.g. You didn’t just bump into me, you meant to hit me) is perhaps the clearest example of a person looking for justification.

2. Perceived Alternatives – Does the person perceive that he has available alternatives to violence that will move him toward the outcome he wants? Since violence, like any behavior, has a purpose, it’s valuable to know the goal of the actor. For example, if a person wants his job back, violence is not the most effective strategy, since it precludes the very outcome he seeks. Conversely, if he wants revenge, violence is a viable strategy, though not usually the only one. A person who feels there are no alternatives will fight even when violence isn’t justified, even when the consequences are perceived as unfavorable, and even when the ability to prevail is low.

3. Perceived Consequences – How does the person view the consequences associated with using violence? Before resorting to force, people weigh the likely consequences, even if unconsciously or very quickly. Consequences might be intolerable, such as for a person whose identity and self-image would be too damaged I he used violence. Context can change that, as with the person who is normally passive but becomes violent in a crowd or mob. Violence can be made tolerable by the support or encouragement of others. It is when consequences are perceived as favorable, such as a person who wants attention and has little to lose, that violence is likely.

4. Perceived Ability: Does the person believe he can successfully deliver the blows or bullet or bomb? People who have successfully used violence in their past have a higher appraisal of their ability to prevail using violence again. People with weapons or other advantages perceive (often correctly) a high ability to use violence.

· Pre-Incident Indictors (PINs) for Violence –

1. Inflexibility – resists change, is rigid and unwilling to discuss ideas contrary to his own.

2. Weapons – has obtained one in the last ninety days, has a collection, makes jokes or frequent comments about weapons, or discusses them as instruments of power or revenge.

3. S-A-D – Sullen, angry or depressed. Chronic anger should never be ignored. Signs of depression include changes in weight, irritability, suicidal thoughts and references, hopelessness, sadness and loss of interest in previously enjoyable activities.

4. Hopelessness – “What’s the use?”; “Nothing ever changes anyway.”; “I’ve got no future.” Gets his affairs in order, sells off possessions, pessimism.

5. Identification – Identifies or even praises other perpetrators of violence. Refers to, jokes about or is fascinated with news stories about major acts of violence, attracted to violent films, magazines like Soldier of Fortune, violent books, or gruesome news events.

6. Associate Fear – Co-workers, family, acquaintances are afraid of or apprehensive about him.

7. TIME – Has used Threats, Intimidations, Manipulations, or Escalations toward others.

8. Paranoia – He feels others are “out to get” him, that unconnected events are related, that others conspire against him.

9. Criticism – He reacts adversely to criticism, shows suspicion of those who criticize him, refuses to consider the merits of any critical observations about his performance or behavior.

10. Blame – he blames others for the results of his own actions, refuses to accept responsibility.

11. Crusades – Has undertaken or attached himself to crusades or missions, or has waged what he might characterize as a “one-man-war.”

12. Unreasonable Expectations – He expects elevation, long-term retention, an apology, being named “the winner” in some dispute, or being found “right.”

13. Grievance – He has a grievance pending or has a history of filing unreasonable grievances.

14. Police Encounters – He has had recent police encounters (including arrests) or he has a history that includes assaultive or behavioral offenses.

15. Media – There have recently been news stories about workplace or family violence or other major acts of violence. Press reports on these subjects often stimulate others who identify with the perps and the attention they got.

16. Focus – He has monitored the behavior, activities, performance, or comings and goings of others, though it is not his job to do so. He maintains a file or dossier on another person or he has recently stalked someone.

17. Contact – If he was fired, he has instigated and maintained contact with current employees. If he was divorced, he maintains contact with the spouse or children. He refuses to let go and appears more focused on the job or relationship he just lost than moving on.

· Good Questions:

1. Describe the best boss you ever had.

2. Describe the worst boss you ever had.

3. Tell me about a failure in your life and tell me why it occurred.

4. What are some of the things your last employer could have done to be more successful?

5. Did you ever tell your previous employer any of your thoughts on ways they could improve?

6. What are some of the things your last employer could have done to keep you?

7. How do you go about solving problems at work?

8. Describe a problem you had in your life where someone else’s help was very important to you.

9. Who is your best friend and how would you describe your friendship?

· How to Break With or Fire Someone:

1. Protect the dignity domino: Prop it up with courtesy and understanding. Never embarrass them. Terminate him in a manner that demonstrates that you expect him to accept the news maturely and appropriately. Think the worst if you will but do not lead him to believe that you are anticipating threats or hazard.

2. Make the break complete: Do not offer gradual separation. You are not lessening the blow by extending the relationship; you are extending the break up.

3. Do not negotiate: This is the golden rule. Once the termination decision has been made, your meeting is to inform him of your decision, period. This is not a discussion of how to improve things, correct things, change the past, find blame, or start over. Revisiting the issues and contentions will only raise sore points and raise emotions. He cannot likely be convinced that termination is a good idea so keep the presentation brief. Use “boomerang lines” to bring the discussion back to the present. “This is not the time to rehash the past; you need to work on the future.” “If you had made this decision instead of me I’d respect it.”

4. Keep the discussion future based: Avoid rehashing the past. Establish some issues about the future to be resolved. “Where shall I tell callers to reach you?” “Would you like me to forward mail or advise senders of your new address?” These points may seem minor, but they direct focus to the future, to his starting over again rather than dwelling on the past.

5. Be direct: Don’t sidle up to the issue so delicately that the person doesn’t fully realize he has been terminated. He might say he understands that he has to improve his performance, to which you then respond, “No it’s over.” This makes him feel foolish on top of all the other feelings. People benefit most from hearing bad news forthrightly. Be matter of fact, not solemn or depressing: “These changes are part of life that we all experience at one time or another. I’ve been through it myself. I know you’ll do well and that this needn’t be a setback for you.”

6. Cite general rather than specific issues: You don’t need to justify to him why you’re taking this action as if you could possible convince him that it’s a good idea. Don’t use it to correct his attitudes or improve him, turning it into a lecture. Describe the decision in general terms, saying it’s for the best. Say the relationship is a two-way street and the present situation isn’t serving either side.

7. Use the element of surprise: He should not be aware of the termination meeting ahead of time. Do not summon them with “Come to this meeting so we can break up.”

8. Time it right: Do it at the end of the day, at the end of the week. Let him deal with this in private, at home. If you’re firing him, let him leave with everyone else so that he doesn’t have to clear out in front of everyone. Don’t make him lose face. Let him have the weekend to cool down before the real impact arises that everyone else is going to work and he isn’t. Let him eat before you break the news if it’s a breakup. He won’t feel like eating and his chemistry will be all out of whack at the same time as he’s dealing with emotional issues. This is not a good thing.

9. Choose your setting: Make it a neutral place where either of you may leave at will. Don’t do it in your environment where you’ll have to force him to leave if he takes it badly. Do not do it in his environment as this makes you psychologically, if not physically vulnerable. Make it private enough that he doesn’t lose face, but public enough that he won’t try something drastic.

10. Choose your cast: Who should be present? Ideally no one but the two of you should be in the immediate environment. If you must have someone else there, don’t let it be an intimidating person. This just shows your weakness and scripts him into a corner. Let it be someone he respects and admires, someone he’d want to be on his best behavior in front of. No equal or direct supervisor should be present. They increase the likelihood of embarrassment.

· Responding to a threat: The value of threats is determined by our reaction. “I understand you are upset, but the things you are talking about are not your style. I know you are far too reasonable and have too good a future to even consider such things.” This reaction is not intended to convince the threatener that he isn’t angry but rather to convince him that you are not afraid. Also, it is important to let the threatener know that he has no embarked on a course from which he cannot retreat. “We all say things when we react emotionally; I’ve done it myself. Let’s just forget it. I know you’ll feel different tomorrow.” Never show a high appraisal of his words, never show fear. This doesn’t mean take no precautions, just don’t let him know you are. Do not counter threaten. This only escalates things. ENGAGE AND ENRAGE. The sooner and more completely you can disengage from him the better.

· PINs for spousal abuse and murder:

1. The woman has intuitive feelings that she is at risk.

2. At the inception of the relationship, the man accelerated the pace, prematurely placing on the agenda such things as commitment, living together, and marriage.

3. He resolves conflict with intimidation, bullying and violence.

4. He is verbally abusive.

5. He uses threats and intimidation as instruments of control or abuse. This includes threats to harm physically, to defame, to embarrass, to restrict freedom, to disclose secrets, to cut off support, to abandon, and to commit suicide.

6. He breaks or strikes things in anger. He uses symbolic violence (tearing a wedding photo, marring a face in a photo, etc.).

7. He has battered in prior relationships.

8. He uses alcohol or drugs with adverse affects (memory loss, hostility, cruelty).

9. He cites alcohol or drugs as an excuse or explanation for hostile or violent conduct (“That was the booze talking, not me; I got so drunk I was crazy”).

10. His history includes police encounters for behavioral offenses (threats, stalking, assault, battery).

11. There has been more than one incident of violent behavior (including vandalism, breaking things, throwing things).

12. He uses money to control the activities, purchases, an behavior of his wife.

13. HE becomes jealous of anyone or anything that takes her time away from the relationship; he keeps her on a “tight leash,” requires her to account for her time.

14. He refuses to accept rejection.

15. He expects the relationship to go on forever, perhaps using phrases like “together for life,” “always,” “no matter what.”

16. he project extreme emotions onto others (hate, love, jealousy, commitment) even when there is no evidence that would lead a reasonable person to perceive them.

17. He minimizes incidents of abuse.

18. he spends a disproportionate amount of time talking about his wife and derives much of his identity from being her husband, lover, etc.

19. He tries to enlist his wife’s friends or relatives in a campaign to keep or recover the relationship.

20. He has inappropriately surveilled or followed his wife.

21. He believes others are out to get him. He believes that those around his wife dislike him and encourage her to leave.

22. He resists change and is described as inflexible, unwilling to compromise.

23. he identifies with or compares himself to violent people in films, news stories, fiction, or history. He characterizes the violence of others as justified.

24. He suffers mood swings or is sullen, angry or depressed.

25. He consistently blames others for problems of his own making; he refuses to take responsibility for the results of his actions.

26. He refers to weapons as instruments of power, control, or revenge.

27. Weapons are a substantial part of his persona; he has a gun or he talks about, jokes about, reads about, or collects weapons.

28. He uses “male privilege” as a justification for his conduct (treats her like a servant, makes all the big decisions, acts like the “master of the house”).

29. He experienced or witnessed violence as a child.

30. His wife fears he will injure or kill her. She has discussed this with others or has made plans to be carried out in the event of her death (e.g. designating someone to care for the children).

· Seven Emotional Abilities:

1. The ability to motivate ourselves.

2. The ability to persist against frustration.

3. The ability to delay gratification.

4. The ability to regulate moods.

5. The ability to hope.

6. The ability to empathize.

7. The ability to control impulse.

· Security Questions to ask Your Child’s School:

1. Do you have a policy manual or teacher’s handbook? May I have a copy or review it here?

2. Is the safety of students the first item addressed in the policy or handbook? If not, why not?

3. Is the safety of students addressed at all?

4. Are there policies addressing violence, weapons, drug use, sexual abuse, child-on-child sexual abuse, unauthorized visitors?

5. Are background investigations performed on all staff?

6. What areas are reviewed during these background inquiries?

7. Who gathers the information?

8. Who in administration reviews the information and determines the suitability for employment?

9. What are the criteria for disqualifying an applicant?

10. does the screening process apply to all employees (teachers, janitors, lunchroom staff, security personnel, part-time employees, etc.)?

11. Is there a nurse on-site at all times while children are present (including before and after school)?

12. What is the nurse’s education or training?

13. Can my child call me at any time?

14. May I visit my child at any time?

15. What are your criteria for when to contact parents?

16. What are the parent notification procedures?

17. What are the student pick-up procedures?

18. How is it determined that someone other than me can pick up my child?

19. How does the school address special situations (custody disputes, child kidnapping concerns, etc.)?

20. Are older children separated from younger children during recess, lunch, restroom breaks, etc.?

21. Are acts of violence or criminality at the school documented? Are statistics maintained?

22. May I review the statistics?

23. What violence or criminality has occurred at the school during the last three years?

24. Is there a regular briefing of teachers and administrators to discuss safety and security issues?

25. Are teachers formally notified when a child with a history of serious misconduct is introduced to their class?

26. What is the student-to-teacher ratio in class? During recess? During meals?

27. How are students supervised during visits to the restroom?

28. Will I be informed of teacher misconduct that might have an impact on the safety or well-being of my child?

29. Are there security personnel on the premises?

30. Are security personnel provided with written policies and guidelines?

31. Is student safety the first issue addressed in the security policies and guidelines material? If not, why not?

32. Is there a special background investigation conducted on security personnel, and what does it encompass?

33. Is there any control over who can enter the grounds?

34. If there is an emergency in a classroom, how does the teacher summon help?

35. If there is an emergency on the playground, how does the teacher summon help?

36. What are the policies and procedures covering emergencies (fire, civil unrest, earthquake, violent intruder, etc.)?

37. How often are emergency drills performed?

38. What procedures are followed when a child is injured?

39. What hospital would my child be transported to in the event of a serious injury?

40. Can I designate a different hospital? A specific family doctor?